$TKAT: New CEO 09/22/2020

 



Company's Profile

    Takung Art Co Ltd (AMEX:TKAT), with a market cap of USD $9.8M. However, an important fact which most ignore is: how financially healthy is the business? Companies operating in the internet software and services industry, even ones that are profitable, are inclined towards being higher risk. Assessing first and foremost the financial health is vital. I believe these positions would clear the story you need to know.
 
New CEO
 

Mrs. Yang, age 45, was the Vice President of Ant Doctor Group Medical (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd from 2018. She founded Muyi Color Studio in Jiangsu, PRC in 2014. She has over 5 years of “live” streaming  e-commerce with 50,000+ followers and more than 20 years of business experience. She graduated from Gansu University of Political Science and Law in 1997 with a Bachelor of Business Administration.

  There is no family relationship between Mrs. Yang and any of our other officers and directors. Except for the employment agreement described below, Mrs. Yang has not had any transaction with us since the beginning of our last fiscal year.  

 
New e-commerce platform

Unit Trading Platform introduced Unit Trading Platform which allows investors to buy, sell and settle shared ownership units of art portfolios. Platform resolve the pain points of traditional art investing such as authenticity, liquidity and valuation.Takung distributes marketing materials to over 170,000 traders.In some cases, road show conducted


 
 




$KBSF: Big Potential Runner

 

-Recent management Change -Lowfloat 0.66mln shares(float less than $DCIX has) 

-Day volume is going up.

-Company operates in China market.

This is very likely the most undervalued stock you can find. We're not talking about speculative stocks that have "huge growth potential" nor likely frauds that trade at a 0.01 P/E but have been exiled to the pinksheets because they haven't filed their financials since 2011. KBSF is a stock that is:

Yahoo Finance data doesn't tell you everything and you should always refer to the SEC filings of the company to understand exactly what is going on, but it does paint a pretty clear picture as to why we think KBSF is the most undervalued stock on the market:



These stats were a snapshot when the stock was 2$. Let's ignore for a second the 1 P/E, the 0.2 Price/Sales and the fact that the company trades at just 10% of book value. Let's just focus on enterprise value because a negative amount might be misinterpreted as a bad thing.

Enterprise value is a company's market cap less its net cash (cash less debt). So a company that has a $10 million market cap but $60 million in debt has an enterprise value of $70 million. The market is pricing the company's business at $70 million because $60 million in debt would have to be paid off before shareholders see a penny of value. Conversely, a company like KBSF with $10 million in market cap but a -$15 million enterprise value means that it has $25 million cash in the bank. Investors are paying less than a dollar for a dollar's worth of cash that sits on the balance sheet for whatever reason. These types of companies represent a great deal and there is literature on the topic discussing how these types of stocks greatly outperform the market.


There is one article that is by far the best and all the other ones espousing a negative enterprise value investment strategy link back to this one as an original source. Alon Bochman, CFA wrote an article titled "Returns On Negative Enterprise Value Stocks: Money For Nothing?" that shows investing in companies with negative enterprise value resulted in an average annual return of 50.4%, and his study covered over 2,600 stocks from 1972 to 2012 so this is not a matter of small sample sizes. The one thing is he didn't not quantify how deep into negative enterprise value each company was, just that if they had negative enterprise value for one month, that stock counted in his aggregate data. One could surmise that the more deeply discounted a stock was, the better return it had, but that is just guess work. His study also showed that microcaps tended to perform the best out of this strategy and had the most opportunities. This makes sense because those are the less liquid stocks that institutions can't really take advantage of due to their small size, but are perfect for retail shareholders to skim easy profits. KBSF fits very well into this mold. Investing in stocks with negative enterprise value could be the one time that the poor little retail shareholder has an advantage over the big boys running Wall Street. So it is not a strategy to take lightly.
We believe that KBSF is one of the best opportunities out of all negative enterprise value stocks that we have seen. There are plenty of companies that trade at market caps less than their net cash, or negative enterprise value. But those are usually biotech firms after their stock price has collapsed from an ineffective drug trial or refusal from the FDA. The expectation is that they are years away from any revenue, but they have heavy cash costs right now from having to pay employees, facilities and other R&D expenses which will erode today's cash balance. Therefore, they aren't really trading below their cash balance, at least not where the market expects the cash balance to be in another few quarters.

Have a look at this stock screener, for instance. You might have to download the CSV file to get the full picture. The vast majority of them are in the healthcare sector (i.e. failed biotechs) and 19 of those 20 companies listed have negative EPS, some of them deeply negative. And the one positive EPS stock received a one-time payment from a termination of an agreement with a larger partner. Hardly a ringing endorsement of things to come
KBSF is not like any of those companies, it's profitable. Just look at the Q1 results in this SEC filing: 







As a foreign filer it takes longer than usual for the results to be filed with the SEC, so we are still waiting for Q2 results. Maybe this is part of the reason why it's so undervalued, people get bored of waiting. But the quarter ended March 2016 saw KBSF earn a 1.6 cent EPS. A 1.6 cent EPS in one quarter is a very good deal on a company with a 43 cent stock price, completely ignoring that it has negative enterprise value anyways. Revenue was flat, $9 million versus $8.9 million and the EPS is down a little bit from 2 cents to 1.6 cents, but it's not like the business is in dire straits. The revenue decline has stopped and it looks to be heading back upward with the recent online sales deal KBSF signed.

It's hard to judge based on just one quarter of financial performance, but KBSF's balance sheet has improved over the last year since it started trading at negative enterprise value (link to SEC financial filing):


balance sits at $26.7 million. This is down from $29 million from March 2015, but the company paid off substantial debts during that time with current liabilities dropping from $16.5 million to $9.3 million. Working capital, current assets less current liabilities, has improved from $53 million to $54.9 million, indicative of a company that's profitable with smart balance sheet management. With 26.5 million shares outstanding, KBSF has $2.07 per share in working capital and $1.01 per share in cash. What's funny is that even though the balance sheet is strong and improved from last year, KBSF has dropped from $6.50 to $0.40 during this time. This also throws out the theory that KBSF will always trade at a discount like some other Chinese stocks do, because at this time last year it was trading well over its book value. It can just as easily return to that state again.

The stock dropped so severely because of a bad 2014. The company's 2015 20-F filing shows that revenue dropped from $99.6 million in 2013 to $58.8 million in 2014 before recovering a bit to $61.3 million in 2015. EPS also dropped from $1 in 2013 to just a few pennies per quarter. But as we see from the Q1 2016 income statement above, revenue and earnings have stabilized. But the stock price is still at these opportunistically low levels. With the company being flush with cash, it could announce a stock repurchase plan at any time. That's why we're not too worried about the NASDAQ minimum bid price rule. With how thinly the stock trades, the company could easily push the stock over a dollar at its own will by using just a small portion of its cash balance.

The following chart summarizes the discount you are getting when you buy KBSF at 43 cents:


At 43 cents, you are paying only 42.6% of the value of the company's cash, 20.8% of its net working capital and a minuscule 11.2% of its overall book value. Not only does KBSF have negative enterprise value, it has deeply negative enterprise value we have never seen before, except for those companies kicked to the pinksheets for financial non-compliance. KBSF could double to 86 cents and it would still have negative enterprise value. It would be a 400% gainer just to come in line with its net working capital. And it goes back again to this company being profitable. It's not like this cash balance is eroding like on a biotech. It's improving.

This doesn't even consider the low earnings multiples. The enterprise value to EBITDA metric doesn't even make sense until the stock price more than doubles. And if EBITDA is $5 million going forward (Yahoo estimates trailing 12-month EBITDA at $7.5 million), an EV/EBITDA metric of 5 leads to a stock price of $2. The first dollar being just for the cash and the second dollar accounting for the $25 million in enterprise value needed to lead to a multiple of 5.

So is KBSF the most undervalued stock on the market? Our answer is yes. We challenge anyone to find a stock this deeply discounted to its cash that's profitable and in compliance with its listing. How long will KBSF remain this cheap? Well, let's refer once again to the last SEC filing on August 17:

"After the first step of cooperation with Jiangsu Spring Fountain Networks Technology Limited, we may have further cooperation in the near future and upgrade to an investment relationship. Additional details of the transaction will be disclosed if and when a definitive agreement is executed by the parties. There is no assurance that the transaction will be eventually consummated."

So the new partner is looking into investing in KBSF. Nothing is assured yet, but at prices where KBSF's cash is basically being given away for free, why wouldn't this company want to grab a piece of it?

$CATS: Big Upside Runner



-Lowfloat (float less than 3mln shares)
-Huge potential application for insurance market.
-Recent Nasdaq Listing(Not much press coverage)
-Conference to be held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in New York City on Tuesday, May 2, 2017 at 10:00 am ET by Terren Peizer, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer.
 

Catasys, Inc. (CATS) provides data analytics based specialized behavioral health management and integrated treatment services to health plans through our On Trak solution. Our On Trak  solution is designed to improve member health and at the same time lower costs to the insurer for underserved populations where behavioral health conditions are causing or exacerbating co-existing medical conditions. The program utilizes proprietary analytics, member engagement and patient centric treatment that integrates evidence-based medical and psychosocial interventions along with care coaching in a 52-week outpatient program. Our initial focus was members with substance use disorders, but we have expanded our solution to assist members with anxiety and depression. We currently operate our On Trak solutions in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. We provide services to commercial (employer funded), managed Medicare Advantage, and managed Medicaid and duel eligible (Medicare and Medicaid) populations.

 

 

 

 

 

 


Business strategy is to provide a quality integrated medical and behavioral program to help health plans and other organizations treat and manage health plan members whose behavioral health conditions are exacerbating co-existing medical conditions resulting in increased in-patient medical costs. Our initial focus was members with substance use disorder, and we have expanded our solution into anxiety disorders and depression.
 
Key elements of company business strategy include :
 


  Demonstrating the potential for improved clinical outcomes and reduced cost associated with using our On Trak solution with key managed care and other third-party payors;
 


  Educating third-party payors on the disproportionately high cost of their substance dependent population;
 


  Providing our On Trak solution to third-party payors for reimbursement on a case rate, fee for service, or monthly fee basis; 
 


  Generating outcomes data from our On Trak solution to demonstrate cost reductions and utilization of this outcomes data to facilitate broader adoption.
 
As an early entrant into offering integrated medical and behavioral programs for substance dependence, we believe we will be well positioned to address increasing market demand. We believe our On Trak solution will help fill the gap that exists today: a lack of programs that focus on smaller populations with disproportionately higher costs driven by behavioral health conditions that improve patient care while controlling overall treatment costs.

Company provide data analytics based specialized behavioral health management and integrated treatment services to health plans through our On Trak solution. Our On Trak  solution is designed to improve member health and at the same time lower costs to the insurer for underserved populations where behavioral health conditions are causing or exacerbating co-existing medical conditions. The program utilizes proprietary analytics, member engagement and patient centric treatment that integrates evidence-based medical and psychosocial interventions along with care coaching in a 52-week outpatient program. Our initial focus was members with substance use disorders, but we have expanded our solution to assist members with anxiety and depression. We currently operate our On Trak solutions in Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia and Wisconsin. We provide services to commercial (employer funded), managed Medicare Advantage, and managed Medicaid and duel eligible (Medicare and Medicaid) populations. 

Our Market
 
The true impact of behavioral health is often under-identified by organizations that provide healthcare benefits. The reality is that individuals with behavioral health conditions:
 


 
are prevalent in any organization;
 


 
cost health plans and employers a disproportionate amount of money;
 


 
have higher rates of absenteeism and lower rates of productivity; and
 


 
have co-morbid medical conditions which incur increased costs for the treatment of these conditions compared to a non-substance dependent population.
 
When considering behavioral health-related costs, many organizations have historically only looked at direct treatment costs–usually behavioral claims.  The reality is that individuals with behavioral health conditions generally have overall poorer health and lower compliance, which leads to more expensive treatment for related, and even seemingly unrelated, co-occurring medical conditions. In fact, for the members we seek to engage our solutions, costs associated with behavioral health treatment are a small portion of their overall healthcare claims.
 
According to the U.S. Census Bureau in 2014, there were over 283 million lives in the U.S. covered by various private managed care programs, including Preferred Provider Organizations (PPOs), Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs), self-insured employers and managed Medicare/Medicaid programs.  Each year, based on our analysis, approximately 1.9% of commercial plan members will have a substance dependence diagnosis, and that figure may be lesser or greater for specific payors depending on the health plan demographics and location.  A smaller, high-cost subset of this population drives the majority of the claims costs for the overall substance dependent population.  For commercial members with substance dependence and a total annual claims cost of at least $7,500, the average annual per member claims cost is $30,000, compared with an average of $3,250 for a commercial non-substance dependent member, according to our research.  
 
Our Customers
 
Our customers provide health insurance to individuals or groups (Contracted Membership). We contract with our customers to provide our On Trak solution to the customers’ Contracted Membership generally in specific lines of business (e.g., commercial, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) and/or specific states or other geographical areas and for specific indications, such as substance use disorders and, more recently, anxiety and depression. We refer to the Contracted Membership to whom we are providing the On Trak solution as Covered Lives. Generally, we receive data relating to the Covered Lives on a regular basis from our customers. We use that data to identify members who meet our contractual eligibility requirements (Eligible Members) and we attempt to engage and enroll those members in our On Trak solution. Our Eligible Members can fluctuate significantly from month to month due to fluctuations in our customers’ Contracted Membership and changes in eligibility due to changes in claims or eligibility data provided to us by our customers. Based on our analysis of the data provided to us by our customers, approximately 0.45% of the adult Contracted Membership in a commercial line of business is anticipated to be eligible for our On Trak solution. Based on our analysis, Medicare and Medicaid lines of business average approximately 2.5 times the number of Eligible Members for our On Trak solution as the same number of Covered Lives in a commercial line of business. Further, our preliminary data analysis shows that adding anxiety and depression indications to our Covered Lives is anticipated to increase our pool of Eligible Members substantially. Based on the latest data provided by one of our customers that has contracted for us to provide On Trak for anxiety, adding the anxiety and depression indications are anticipated to increase the number of Eligible Members by approximately four times over substance use disorders alone. There are fluctuations in the number of Eligible Members across customers and geographies. Our analysis to date is based on limited data, and in some cases like anxiety and depression, very limited data. There can be no assurance that the data we have analyzed to date will be predictive of the future or that the portion of Covered Lives that are eligible for our programs will not change in the future. In addition, the percentage of Eligible Members in any lines of Covered Lives may fluctuate substantially from period to period.



 

Catasys, Inc. ($CATS) Solution: On Trak

 
On Trak
 
Our On Trak solution combines evidence-based medical and psychosocial treatments with elements of population health management and ongoing member support to help health plans treat members with substance dependence, anxiety and depression and to improve member health and lower the overall health plan costs of these members. We believe the benefits of our On Trak solution include improved clinical outcomes and decreased costs for the payor, and improved quality of life and productivity for the member.
 
Although the healthcare services industry is competitive, we believe On Trak is the only solution of its kind. The On Trak solution was developed by behavioral health experts with years of clinical experience. This experience has helped to form key areas of expertise that we believe sets our solution apart from other solutions, including member engagement, working directly with the member treatment team and a more fully integrated treatment offering.
 
Our On Trak solution includes the following components: identification of impactable members, member engagement, enrollment/referral, provider network, outpatient medical treatment, outpatient psychosocial treatment, care coaching, monitoring and reporting, and our proprietary web-based clinical information platform (eOn Trak ).
 
We assist health plans to identify those members who incur significant costs and may be appropriate for enrollment into On Trak . We then engage and enroll targeted members into our program through direct mailings and telephonic outreach, and referral through health plan sources. After enrollment, our contracted network of providers provide treatments utilizing integrated medical and psychosocial treatment modalities, including our proprietary On Trak therapy modules for anxiety, depression and substance use disorders to help members develop improved coping skills and a recovery support network. Throughout the treatment process, our care coaches work directly with members to keep them engaged in treatment by proactively supporting members to enhance motivation, minimize lapses and enable lifestyle modifications consistent with the recovery goals. Periodically, we will provide outcomes reporting on clinical and financial metrics to our customers to demonstrate the extent of the program’s value.
 
Clinical and financial outcomes from the On Trak solution have been promising with On Trak enrolled members achieving an average gross cost reduction of more than 50% for the year after enrollment compared to the 12 months prior to enrollment. In addition, to date, approximately 80% of members who have remained eligible have been retained in the program.
 

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